Trends in Motion Prediction Toward Deployable and Generalizable Autonomy: A Revisit and Perspectives¶
Authors: Letian Wang, Marc-Antoine Lavoie, Sandro Papais, Barza Nisar, Yuxiao Chen, Wenhao Ding, Boris Ivanovic, Hao Shao, Abulikemu Abuduweili, Evan Cook, Yang Zhou, Peter Karkus, Jiachen Li, Changliu Liu, Marco Pavone, Steven Waslander
Published: 2025 (Survey Paper)
arXiv: 2505.09074
Summary¶
Surveys the state-of-the-art in motion prediction for autonomous driving with a focus on real-world deployability and generalization, providing a taxonomy of approaches and discussing open challenges for bringing prediction models from research to production.
Abstract¶
Motion prediction, recently popularized as world models, refers to the anticipation of future agent states or scene evolution, which is rooted in human cognition, bridging perception and decision-making. It enables intelligent systems, such as robots and self-driving cars, to act safely in dynamic, human-involved environments, and informs broader time-series reasoning challenges. With advances in methods, representations, and datasets, the field has seen rapid progress, reflected in quickly evolving benchmark results. Yet, when state-of-the-art methods are deployed in the real world, they often struggle to generalize to open-world conditions and fall short of deployment standards. This reveals a gap between research benchmarks, which are often idealized or ill-posed, and real-world complexity. To address this gap, this survey revisits the generalization and deployability of motion prediction models, with an emphasis on applications of robotics, autonomous driving, and human motion. We first offer a comprehensive taxonomy of motion prediction methods, covering representations, modeling strategies, application domains, and evaluation protocols. We then study two key challenges: (1) how to push motion prediction models to be deployable to realistic deployment standards, where motion prediction does not act in a vacuum, but functions as one module of closed-loop autonomy stacks - it takes input localization and perception, and informs downstream planning and control. 2) How to generalize motion prediction models from limited seen scenarios/datasets to the open-world settings. Throughout the paper, we highlight critical open challenges to guide future work, aiming to recalibrate the community's efforts, fostering progress that is not only measurable but also meaningful for real-world applications. The project webpage can be found at https://trends-in-motion-prediction-2025.github.io/
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Tags¶
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Motion prediction
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Autonomous driving
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Survey
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Taxonomy
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Generalization
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Deployment